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ES #148: $750 billion in US energy
The U.S. and EU struck a trade deal on Sunday afternoon that, according to a joint press conference between President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, includes a 15% tariff on nearly all EU goods (excl. metals and pharmaceuticals), a $600 billion increase in EU investments into the US, and an EU commitment to purchase $750 billion of U.S. energy exports.
ES #141: Fed Spreads & Recession
The spread between the effective federal funds rate and the market yield on U.S. 2YR Treasuries is currently at the 86th percentile of its 1999-2025 historical distribution as the Fed's 168-day pause since its last rate cut indicates increasing downside risks from politicization










